A Deal with Democrats Might Save the House...and the Country
Democrats have some leverage, Republicans have some incentive
Now is the time for Democrats in the House of Representatives to step up meaningful efforts to broker a compromise in the stalemate over electing a new Speaker. Resolving the Republican-created quagmire does not demand Democrats rise above politics. That’s a lot to ask of either party in today’s climate. Instead, a deal with Republicans demands that Democrats use politics to their advantage.
Democrats largely stood by in January when Republicans put Kevin McCarthy through the ringer and extracted commitments from him that now threaten the ability of the country to function. Understandable. The Speaker is elected by the majority party, and Republicans were in no mood to negotiate a deal with Democrats.
Today circumstances have changed. Democrats should move deal-making from the edges of their caucus to the leadership. The stakes are too high to be bystanders. Electing Jim Jordan or another hardliner to the Speaker’s office likely would lead the House into a complete meltdown. It’s hard to envision a budget that could win the support of both Jordan and the Democratic-controlled Senate, forcing government to shut down.
It is tempting for Democrats to let Republicans stew in a crisis of their own making. There are thousands of crises between now and November 2024 that could create chaos at home and abroad, giving Democrats a political boost. But the 2024 election is 13 months away. If the country is dragged through a wrenching budget impasse that shuts down government for an extended period of time, if the Mideast explodes in an even larger conflict, if Ukraine falls to Russia, if…if…if…then, chaos prevails.
No politician is better suited to thrive in chaos than Donald J. Trump. Voters who are angry, who feel betrayed and who see government as ineffective at best and corrupt at worst aren’t likely to embrace the calming Biden over the inflammatory Trump. Democrats may regain the House majority, but would it be worth a second term of Donald Trump and the autocracy he proposes?
This isn’t an endorsement of Democratic policies or leadership. Today’s challenges demand new solutions, not the same tired answers coming from both Democrats and Republicans. As a practical matter, while Democrats have some leverage in the current environment, Republicans aren’t about to give progressives free reign when it comes to policy.
But here’s what Democrats MIGHT be able to do: offer enough Democratic votes (imposing on Democratic members from safe districts) to push a more temperate Republican across the finish line in the Speaker’s race. What might they ask for in return? Some starting points:
First and foremost, pass a budget that holds to the spending ceilings agreed to last spring by President Biden and Speaker McCarthy. The deal agreed to then increases funding for defense and veterans while imposing an automatic reduction in spending on most discretionary government programs if Congress does not pass appropriations bills. The deal isn’t perfect (putting budgets on automatic pilot rarely is a good idea), but it does pave the way for federal budgets over the next two years – avoiding government shutdowns – while retaining the authority of Congress to reduce spending further or add money to some programs through the normal appropriations process.
Second, extract an agreement on additional support for Ukraine. There are enough Republicans in the House (with Democratic support) and in the Senate to get a long-term agreement if the smaller group of GOP opponents aren’t allowed to obstruct a deal for their own isolationist politics. Yes, Congress should support Israel, but that is almost a certainty.
Third, bring some balance to the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. Democrats aren’t going to get Republicans to stop the proceedings, and Democrats shouldn’t negotiate for that. So far, and this is after four years of Trump’s Department of Justice and the last year of House investigations, even the Republicans’ hand-picked witnesses testified last month that there is insufficient evidence to support articles of impeachment. If Democrats negotiate the inquiry away, public skepticism will prevail. Instead, work toward a more fair and transparent process. Democrats could seek another seat or two on the key oversight committee (the GOP now has a five-seat majority, a key advantage), gain more say in calling and examining witnesses and set a firm deadline of early next year to finish the inquiry.
Fourth, gain an agreement to hold hearings on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 within the next year. The provisions of this massive 2017 tax bill affecting individuals are set to expire in 2025. Rather than waiting until the 11th hour, Democrats should demand a platform before the 2024 elections to show why many of the provisions in the tax bill are failures and what smarter tax policy might look like.
Why should Republicans accept this kind of deal? A budget that hews to the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling agreement might make it through the Senate and the White House. While it falls short of what GOP hardliners want, real cuts in government spending give Republicans a meaningful achievement to tout to their political base.
The alternative seems to be only more dysfunction, and that already is hurting Republicans. A survey released Oct. 12 by the national polling firm SSRS found nearly three-quarters of Americans disapprove of the way the GOP’s leaders in Congress are handling their jobs (74%, up from 67% in January). More chaos can send those numbers in only one direction.
And if Republicans and Democrats can’t agree to find a compromise candidate for Speaker for their own self-serving reasons, here’s the best reason: Every so often voters deserve to be rewarded by politicians who are willing to do the right thing.
Electing Jim Jordan looks vanishingly unlikely. The wish list you lay out for concessions to Democrats also looks to be vanishingly overbroad. Maintaining a budget framework that can avoid a government shutdown past the 2024 election looks to be realistic, but everything else, including Ukraine, looks to be a real stretch. Neither of us is a big fan of Tom Emmer -- but at this point, frankly, he looks to be possibly the best option for Republicans, and someone the Republican conference might possibly be able to elect with no explicitly stated deal -- although a few independently decided and voluntary Democratic "present" votes would be needed. Emmer offers the virtue of frankness, and may have both the skills and credibility to be both elected Speaker, and to work with a Democratic Senate and President Biden - who I'm personally about as horrified with as I am with Trump. I have some questions for you about Robert Kennedy Jr -- hope we can get a chance to talk about them after the upcoming November Minneapolis "election" -- which I put in quote marks due to anticipated low turnout.
From your pen to the eyes of all House Members! It's a very reasonable plan and it behooves members on both sides of the aisle to get together, compromise and get something productive done for the people they are supposed to be serving.