Debate Takeaways: Harris Had a Strategy, Trump Didn’t and it Showed

A few takeaways from the Tuesday debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris:

Obvious Questions, Well Presented:

Some Republicans are shouting conspiracy, claiming that Harris must have had the questions in advance to have performed so well. In fact, a reasonably competent, mid-level campaign manager could have predicted the questions with 95% accuracy. And to that end, the moderators did well. They asked timely and appropriate questions without any “got’cha” attempts, they didn’t make speeches as they were asking the questions and the questions to both candidates were fair and balanced.

Both Candidates Lacked Substance, But Harris Won All the Style Points

Presidential debates rarely are won or lost on content. What is remembered are style and flubs. On the former, think of Ronald Reagan’s masterful performance in the one and only 1980 debate (there was an earlier debate with third party candidate John Anderson, but Carter chose not to participate). For all the problems of the economy in 1980, Reagan was behind in most polls in October. People worried that he didn’t have the temperament to be president. He charmed audiences in the debate with an easy, relaxed style and his calming, “There you go again.” That voters at ease and Reagan won in a landslide. What did Reagan actually propose in that debate? Who knows.

On the flubs, there are many examples, the most striking, of course, being this year’s disaster between Trump and Joe Biden. Among the other notable debate failures is Gerald Ford’s statement in 1976, “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration.” He was wrong, of course, but did the flub cost Ford the election? Probably not. He faced too many headwinds, from a struggling economy to his pardon of Richard Nixon. But the comment did come to define the debate and even Ford’s presidency.

In the debate between Trump and Harris, she set the tone, framed much of the discussion (for example, she made abortion, her strongest issue, far more prominent than inflation and the economy, Trump’s strongest issues) and held the upper hand through much of the 90 minutes. Neither candidate went deep into policy, but both were able to define their priorities. What separated them was her confident and skillful ability to make Trump his own worst enemy.

Harris’s case for election is that Trump represents the past and chaos while she is the future and brings stability to the White House. She effectively prosecuted her case Tuesday.

She Had a Goal and Strategy, He Had Grievances

The outcome of the 2024 presidential race long has come down to which candidate better achieves his or her most important goal. Trump has to either expand his base or significantly depress Democratic turnout. In 2016, about 60% of eligible voters turned out and Trump won. In 2020, turnout soared to 66% and Trump lost.

Trump’s supporters will hear in his remarks all the rallying points - the scourge of immigration, the declining state of America and the disregard for the United States abroad. And, as always with Trump, there were the complaints of a stolen election, the prosecution of January 6 rioters and the unfair media. Then there is the unexpected and inexplicable. Now, it’s the false claim some immigrants are stealing and eating pets.

For her part, Harris needs to generate enthusiasm among her voter base while expanding her support. She needs a strong showing at the polls by women, people of color and urban residents.

Harris had a clear strategy for the debate: put Trump on the defense, showcase his thin skin and, where possible, enthuse her voters. Time and again she achieved her first two goals. On the third task, her passionate discussion of reproductive rights and “Trump’s abortion bans” may not win new voters, but it’s likely to motivate one of her key constituencies to vote and to bring others to the polls with them.

This week’s debate won’t determine the election outcome. In fact, it’s likely that Harris may tick up a point or two in the polls, but that it will remain a very close race. Still, it was a much better night for Harris than for Trump.

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