Four Predictions for the New Year

2024 will be a year of transition in key areas

A new year delivers as much angst as optimism, and that’s especially true for 2024. The year’s most significant issues and events have the potential to bring storm clouds or lead us into the bright sunshine of a better future. It is a year of transition with politics, technology and demographic changes leading the way.

(This is Part 1 of 2024 predictions; political forecasts are coming soon.)

Here are four evolving trends to watch in the New Year:

Artificial Intelligence

Much of the discussion to date around AI has been about potential negative consequences, especially its potential to eliminate jobs. In 2024, the discussion will grow more balanced and AI increasingly will be recognized for what it can do to make lives better.

Take health care as just one example. A phase 3 clinical trial tests a new medication or procedure against the standard of care. Up to 3,000 patients may be involved, the test may last for years and millions and millions of data points are generated, each of which has to be identified and analyzed. AI already is playing a role, one that will grow in 2024. AI can do a better job than humans of identifying potential participants, tracking the progress of those in the trial and assess the data, eliminating the errors that often creep into any evaluation of such huge volumes of information. Eventually, AI likely will be able to create “synthetic patients” to replace control groups in clinical trials, expediting the development of new drugs and more accurately identifying associated risks.

U.S. population is flatlining

AI’s integration into our everyday lives will be accelerated by the rapid demographic changes occurring in the U.S. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that in the next 75 years, the U.S. population will grow by less than 10% and will be in decline by the turn of the century. The population is expected to fall from a high of 380 million in the last quarter of the 21st Century to 366 million by 2100.

With low growth rates come increasing age. The median age in the U.S. has increased by about 3.5 years since 2000 and is now getting close to 40. Nearly three-fourths of all U.S. counties (74%) have a higher median age than the nation, with younger populations concentrating in larger urban centers.

What might this mean for 2024 and beyond?

Stagnant population growth will bring changes in many areas as policymakers and others no longer will be able to promote more people as the answer to health care, public safety, education and other critical areas.

Public safety will have to rely more on AI to identify criminal trends, trouble spots and potential lawbreakers, raising even more troublesome questions about privacy.

Education will have fewer debates about smaller classroom sizes and more emphasis on how AI can individualize lessons and instruction, helping each student learn at his or her own pace while working under the guidance of well-paid teachers.

Stores will introduce more and more ways to do without workers. Clerkless stores will permit entrance with a biometric signature (e.g., a palm print), then track what customers are self-selecting from shelves with embedded tags and cameras – automatically keeping track of what the customer is purchasing and taking from the store, then automatically charging the credit card linked to the biometric signature.

Employers will have to be smarter to manage workplaces in an era of fewer workers. The increasing challenge will be to balance the value of in-person workplaces with the demand by many employees for jobs that can be done from remote locations. Complicating the issue will be the constant presence of AI. Is it looking over the shoulder of workers to track productivity or replacing routine tasks to create more room for human ingenuity?

The immigration debate will change from an emphasis on border security to securely admitting qualified workers into the country.  Traditional Republican constituencies, starting with business and agriculture, will push for comprehensive immigration reform to address those immigrants already here and the millions who will be needed to keep the economy strong. Sadly, more thoughtful immigration debate won’t happen before the November elections, but a better discussion will start to emerge as worker shortages become more severe and more damaging to the U.S. economy (especially in the 74% of U.S. counties AP that are aging rapidly).

Energy and climate

The world energy market is changing more quickly than most imagined. A year ago, OPEC was able to boost the world price of oil by reducing production. Heading into 2024, the cartel’s influence over prices has been greatly diminished. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. domestic producers pumped about 13.5 million barrels a day in November, nearly a million barrels a day more than the EIA’s forecast of a year ago. The U.S. now is producing more oil than any other country in the world.

That’s a good-news-bad-news scenario. More fossil fuels mean more rapid and severe climate change. On the other hand, more U.S. production of oil brings some stability to the marketplace and creates the time and resources needed to accelerate the shift to renewable energy sources. That transition is accelerating quickly. In 2024, the volume of U.S. electricity generated by wind and solar will surpass coal-generated electricity.

Public sentiment in support of clean-energy development is growing quickly. According to a Pew Research study published in mid-2023, two-thirds of U.S. adults say the country should prioritize developing renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar over expanding the production of oil, coal and natural gas. Especially noteworthy is that 67% of Republicans under age 30 share this view.

Two realities will build even greater support for renewable energy.

First, rural America will benefit from more investments in renewable energy and the creation of more green energy jobs. Where green energy has been contentious in Republican regions, support will grow as the economic benefits become more apparent in 2024.

Second, there aren’t many Americans who escaped the impact of climate-related disasters in 2023. There were a record number of weather disasters costing $1 billion or more in 2023 even when adjusted for inflation. Heat, drought, wildfires, floods and storms took an enormous toll on communities throughout the country. It is becoming harder and harder for even the most committed climate skeptics to ignore what is happening to our world.

The 2024 elections likely will be the last in which the impact of humans on climate is even debated. While this year still will see demagoguery on climate, support for more fossil fuels and  misinformation on mitigation strategies, the public increasingly will look to policymakers for solutions. Carbon capture and sequestration strategies, conservation, alternative energy sources (including new-era hydrogen and nuclear) and other solutions will be demanded of policymakers.

Among the events in 2024 that will drive public opinion from questioning climate change to demanding action is the growing volume of climate-related litigation. Fossil fuel companies will be held accountable in courts both for what they have done and how they have mislead the public.  In many ways, the cases are reminiscent of the tobacco lawsuits in the 1990s. The court judgments against Big Tobacco were important, but what changed public opinion about smoking was the discovery of the industry’s secret campaign to promote tobacco use through fake science, racial, age and gender targeting and other unethical (and well-funded) efforts to hide the truth about the damage caused by tobacco use. Litigation will force out the same truths about the misinformation and fake science the fossil fuels industries have promulgated.

Global conflicts increase as war becomes cheaper

Tragically, the price of global violence is decreasing as the ability to inflict enormous harm to people and communities increases. Drones are becoming more precise, able to carry more destructive weapons and cheaper. Last summer, North Korea unveiled two models of military drones designed for war. And war nearly is inevitable in the mind of Kim Jong Un who, in his New Year’s address, said that "Because of reckless moves by the enemies to invade us, it is a fait accompli that a war can break out at any time on the Korean peninsula."

Meanwhile, Iran continues to finance turmoil in the Mideast as it becomes the arms supplier to terrorist militias throughout the region. To finance its efforts, Iran is selling drones to Russia. And, as weapons of war go, they are cheap. An Iranian kamikaze drone can be had for as little as $20,000.

Cyber terrorism is likely to increase in 2024. Ransom attacks for financial gains will continue; more threatening, though, is the annual security assessment published by the Department of Homeland Security which predicts increased physical attacks and cyber-targeting of critical infrastructure: “Domestic and foreign adversaries will likely continue to target our critical infrastructure over the next year, in part because they perceive targeting these sectors would be detrimental to U.S. industries and the American way of life. While cyber attacks seeking to compromise networks or disrupt services for geopolitical or financial purposes continue apace, we noted an uptick over the last year of physical attacks on critical infrastructure.”

Each of these challenges and opportunities has the potential to strengthen America or leave us more vulnerable to forces that threaten our future security and well-being. As overwhelming as the issues and events may seem, it still is within our power to define the future of our country, beginning with our votes in November. While election years often are times of transition, the stakes rarely have been higher than they are in 2024.

(Coming next: Political predictions for the new year.)