What Biden Should Take from the Polls

Look beyond the horse race to what polls say about voters

Here’s a holiday gift to those who fret over political polls that test how one candidate would fare against another IF the election were held today. You may ignore them. They tell you little about how the election might play out 11 months from now.

A recent survey from Monmouth University, an organization that produces reliable data, is a case in point (http://tinyurl.com/5yduxuxx). The survey finds that among registered voters, Joe Biden has a 31%-29% lead over Donald Trump among those who say they definitely have made up their minds. But, the world moves too quickly to make a head-to-head comparison 11 months out more than a quick talking point. After all, in December of 2019, who was predicting something called Covid would dominate the following year?

This doesn’t mean early polling is worthless. This early in a campaign cycle, polls say much more about the voters than about the candidates. On one point, credible polls are unanimous in finding that a Biden-Trump rematch leaves voters cold. About one-in-six voters in the Monmouth survey say they will not vote for either candidate, including 24% of independent voters. Among partisans, Biden is in a bit better shape with 14% of Republicans and 9% of Democrats rejecting both candidates.

Reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for the two leading candidates, voters are giving Robert F. Kennedy Jr. a closer look. According to the Monmouth results, Kennedy seems to appeal in equal measure to both Democrats and Republicans; one-in -six voters say they MAY vote for him. That’s highly unlikely, but Kennedy does bring an advantage that most independent candidates lack – name recognition.  Only 13% of survey respondents say they never have heard of Kennedy.

Look beyond the horse race question, though, and Monmouth and other surveys bring into focus Trump’s strategy. He isn’t likely to broaden his appeal. His challenge is to make sure that every person who voted for him in 2020 returns in 2024. His tool-of-choice – his provocative, angry and divisive rhetoric and pronouncements. Calling immigrants “vermin” who are “poisoning the blood of our country” and saying he will imprison and even execute those who oppose him isn’t just the language of an intemperate autocrat-in-waiting, but the calculated strategy of a candidate who would rather win at any cost than lose a second time to Joe Biden.

On the other hand, Biden’s strategy flies in the face of what this and other surveys say. Biden needs to ignite his voters and give them a reason to go to the polls.  Yet, the Biden team seems to think the best strategy is to double down on boredom. Instead of rousing passions, the White House releases dense charts that show the robust rebound of the economy. (http://tinyurl.com/337xwju5and). But do voters really get excited to learn that supply chains have healed or that most workers had a 1.1% wage gain after inflation over the last year? Important, to be sure. Motivating? Probably not.

A friend made the excellent point that most voters don’t judge current conditions by the past but by their expectations. If one thought prices at the grocery store would be less than last year, it’s disappointing when prices still are higher than they were pre-Covid. Biden needs to show empathy, anger with the forces that threaten many workers and less thin skin about his age and competency.

Biden needs to recast the campaign themes:

• Biden is not a senile old man, but a seasoned leader. He has the experience and mostly has shown the wisdom to deal with the complex challenges facing America (with the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal being a notable exception). But what the public mostly sees is TV footage of Biden’s awkward gait as he heads off to the helicopter. Even as America grows older, many Americans still equate old age with ineptness. Biden needs to show his engagement and thoughtfulness to the public, not just to his inner circle. He should engage in lively and candid conversations with the media, even those who are hostile to him. He should demonstrate his knowledge and confidence on the issues that matter to him and to the voters.

• Dems are pragmatic progressives, not radical leftists. The liberal left seems always ready to come to the defense of the most extreme activists, challenging core values of many Americans. Biden should lead the way in telling America that we must be a country that guarantees equal opportunities; we cannot and should not try to guarantee equal outcomes. Keep making the case that it is Republicans who want to impose their values on others rather than upholding the common values that unite the nation.

• Biden is a bold fighter for American workers and values. Who better than a kid from Scranton, PA, to raise lunch box issues over the proposed Nippon Steel purchase of U.S. Steel? Biden should call for a hold on the takeover until a thorough study is conducted of how the deal might affect U.S. security, jobs, and other critical issues. Tell America we aren’t giving away legacy and vital U.S. companies for 30 pieces of silver (and tell Japan quietly not to fret; the deal will go through after Nov 2024 regardless of who is elected).

• Biden is a smart negotiator, not a flip-flopper. Republicans want to squeeze Biden by demanding that aid to Ukraine and Israel be attached to border issues. Biden should double down on the tactic. Yes, border security is a real and legitimate issue. But so is the need for predictable policies on work visas and resolving the fate of Dreamers – the more than 600,000 immigrants brought to the U.S. as children and now living with uncertainty over their future. Remember Clinton’s “triangulation” strategy, the way he would take credit for an opponent’s issue while including measures his supporters also wanted? Biden should leverage support for more border security with other immigration reforms, especially those that have broad support from business and other interests. And, the critical Ukraine aid? Every time a Republican complains about border security, keep front and center the images of Ukrainian families suffering in winter after Putin’s cruel targeting of utility infrastructure.

Both Biden and Trump will have hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on their campaigns. Much of it will and should go into efforts to get supporters to vote. For that effort to succeed, the get-out-the-vote message has to fall on receptive ears. Polls at this point tell campaigns the how and why voters will make their choices. The question for Biden’s team is whether they are listening.