Primary Outcome Brings Potential for a Substantive Gubernatorial Campaign

Klobuchar, Demuth could have debate that matters. The Senate race will be a contest of partisan ideas.

Minnesota will elect its first female governor. Even more significant for a state facing strong economic headwinds and fundamental questions about the role and reach of government, the winner should emerge from a campaign that likely will be more substantive than many Minnesotans have endured in recent years.

The outcome of the gubernatorial primary gives Minnesota the best possible matchup of candidates who can be expected to thoughtfully and effectively represent their very different philosophies.That’s not to say there won’t be a full measure of negative ads and attacks by surrogates, especially on hot-button issues like fraud and social issues. But Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth mostly are positive people who understand government and public policy. The contrast will be sharp and the differences clear. But the distinctions are likely to be drawn in language that seeks to build, not tear down.

The Senate race almost certainly will be more intensely partisan and the campaigns - fueled by outside money - more negative than the gubernatorial contest.

Peggy Flanagan, buoyed by a record voter turnout, scored an unexpectedly large win over U.S. Rep. Angie Craig. Craig could never shake the attacks that she was too supportive of ICE and too cozy with corporate donors. To her credit, Flanagan was able to leverage the anger of many Minnesotans over the ICE surge earlier this year. In particular she was able to engage many voters - especially younger ones - who aren’t typical participants in primary elections.

Flanagan also emerged from the primary relatively unscathed. Craig never launched a full-on attack tying Flanagan to the Walz Administration and the fraud in safety net programs. Michelle Tafoya, winner of the Republican primary, won’t be so kind.

Both Flanagan and Tafoya probably will take a step or two toward the center. Not giant steps for either, mind you. Flanagan will stick to her Bernie Sanders agenda of Medicare for All and Tafoya will continue to hew closely to the MAGA party line. But outside groups will do all they can to convince voters that Flanagan and Tafoya are little more than Minnesota-lite versions of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and President Donald Trump.

Both Flanagan and Tafoya enter the general election with a fractured base. The enthusiasm of DFL voters reflected in Tuesday’s primary turnout and the eagerness of Democrats to elect a Senate that will be an effective brake to the abuses of Trump give Flanagan a better chance at healing the rifts and creating unity.

Tafoya has a bigger battle. She has been at odds with the most conservative of Republicans. The GOP-endorsed candidate Adam Schwarze adamantly said he would not support Tafoya if he lost the primary. Now, in fairness, a person who loses the primary by 28% doesn’t carry a lot of political cache, but statewide Republican candidates can’t afford to lose a single vote from their core constituency. Recent history is not an ally of GOP Senate candidates. Democrats Tina Smith and Klobuchar have won their last five elections by an average of 13%.

Still, Tafoya will be a formidable opponent. She is articulate, if not fully up to speed in the issues. And, there are cracks in the DFL hold on the Senate seats. Two years ago in Klobuchar’s Senate re-election campaign, her incomparably inept Republican opponent Royce White still managed to flip 30 counties from Klobuchar’s 2018 win. Imagine how a visit from President Trump could energize MAGA and fill Tafoya’s coffers. Yes, a visit from Trump brings negatives, but at the right time in the right place, it would be well worth the downside.

Two final thoughts:

The endorsement process suffered another blow. For the first time in decades, Republicans turned their backs on the gubernatorial and Senate candidates endorsed by the state convention. The Democratic candidates fared better, with both of the top two endorsed candidates winning, but the DFL has had its own history of voters rejecting endorsed candidates. Klobuchar becomes the first endorsed Democrat to survive a primary for an open gubernatorial seat since Wendy Anderson in 1970.

Unfortunately, the party system of caucuses and conventions has more lives than the Phoenix. Just like the mythical creature, party endorsements sometimes burst into flames and leave only ashes behind. Yet, somehow, the same creature is reborn. Why? Because it gives the parties a measure of significance and control. Changes aren’t likely.

And, a positive note to counter political cynicism. Minnesotans are going to love Ben Schierer the more they get to know him. The two-term mayor of Fergus Falls is Klobuchar’s lieutenant governor candidate and is likely to have a prominent campaign role especially outside of the Twin Cities. Schierer is smart, he understands rural Minnesota and has a track record of success. More importantly, he is a down-to-earth, decent person of integrity.

The second banana on a gubernatorial ticket doesn’t often get the spotlight. By nature, Schierer isn’t one to push himself into public attention. But he will grow on Minnesotans and remind voters that there are many politicians who are in the business for all the right reasons.